2026 hurricane season projections
From NorthStar:
The Forecast: 13 Named Storms | 6 Hurricanes | 2 Major
The Driver: El Niño peak = higher Atlantic wind shear, suppressing overall development
The Reality: The probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline still sits at a critical 32%
The Hotzones: Florida holds a 74% risk of a named storm. The Gulf Coast retains a 20% probability of a major landfall.
One summary:
A "below-average" hurricane season is NOT a free pass for commercial portfolios. El Niño is expected to suppress the raw storm count this year—but for property risk and facilities leaders, the threat level remains material.
The most dangerous assumption right now? Equating fewer storms with lower loss potential.
An early, quieter forecast should never lead to operational complacency. Readiness is your best defense.
Bottom Line: It only takes ONE major landfall to define a season.
