might emergency management be impacted by an early census

You would not think that emergency management at the state and local government would be impacted by machinations around the topic of holding an early census of people living in the United States, but, but, but…there is a wrinkle…

Read this section from a larger piece on proposed election reforms that was in the Washington Post. The section below focuses just on the proposal by the Trump Administration to hold an early census before the ten year requirement for a census. 

You can read the connection that is on the table now and which will likely be adjudicated in the courts.

“Seeking a new census that excludes undocumented immigrants
. What has Trump done? Trump suggested in August that he plans to conduct a census years ahead of schedule that would exclude people present in the country illegally. 

Since his 2020 defeat, Trump has falsely said that vast numbers of undocumented immigrants cast ballots for Biden, even though voting by noncitizens is exceedingly rare, according to studies and election experts. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that he had “instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures.”



What does this mean? Population counts take place every 10 years, and Trump’s directive, if carried out, would have significant consequences for elections. The census is used to determine how many electoral votes each state gets for presidential elections, how many House seats each state gets, and how states draw their congressional districts. Changing the census count could shrink the representation of some blue states. But some red states, including Florida, could also be hurt.


What could stop Trump? An early census almost certainly would face legal challenges by voting rights groups and others who argue that excluding any residents would violate the Constitution because it says “the whole number of persons in each State” must be counted. 

The government has counted all residents in the past so that it can be confident it has accurate figures and can distribute the right amount of federal aid to states and cities.
Worth watching. The administration has told state officials they would not receive hundreds of millions of federal dollars for emergency preparedness unless they show updated population counts that reflect removals of unauthorized immigrants since Trump returned to power. 

Such a move could test how far states are willing to go to access the money and could give the administration data it could try to use to reshape Congress ahead of 2030.
The wild card. The clock is running out for a new census before the 2026 elections because a national count takes months to conduct and many states will hold their primaries in the spring. But Trump could keep pushing to conduct one before the 2028 presidential election.


What else is Trump trying? In his March executive order, Trump sought to require people to provide proof of citizenship when they register to vote. Courts have blocked that part of his order.
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