Southern California’s wildfire risk in 2026
The following are sections of information I extracted from a recent AccuWeather news release.
“AccuWeather® experts estimate the total damage and economic loss from the Los Angeles County wildfires at $250 billion to $275 billion, making it one of the costliest wildfire disasters in modern U.S. history.
Thousands of homes and businesses were destroyed last January as extreme Santa Ana winds and critically dry conditions fueled fast-moving fires through densely populated and high-value neighborhoods.
“The economic fallout from these wildfires is far from over. California has faced an insurance availability and affordability crisis for years. It has been difficult for some people to secure coverage after the fires, especially in high-risk areas,” Porter said. “Recent research found that heart attacks, lung issues and other medical conditions in Los Angeles County spiked in the days and weeks following the wildfires.”
Southern California’s wildfire risk in 2026
“AccuWeather® long-range experts are monitoring the impacts of recent storms, as well as evolving weather patterns and trends that could influence the wildfire risk in Southern California later this year.
The risk of rapidly spreading fires in Southern California is expected to remain low through mid-January. AccuWeather® long-range experts say conditions this year are drastically different compared to last January, when the region was dealing with severe to extreme drought conditions due to a lack of rainfall, an abundance of dried out vegetation and hurricane-force wind gusts.
“Recent storms have significantly reduced drought conditions across much of California. The rain, and especially the mountain snow, are welcomed for reservoirs and the region’s water supply, but they can also contribute to a higher wildfire risk later in the year,” AccuWeather® Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained. “As that moisture soaks into the ground and the snowpack melts, it can fuel rapid grass and vegetation growth this spring. If hot and dry weather develops during the summer, that vegetation can dry out quickly and become an abundant source of fuel for wildfires.”
Early indications show the Pacific climate pattern will trend toward El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions this spring, then possibly towards El Niño at some point this summer or fall. AccuWeather® long-range experts say confidence in the timing of development remains limited this early in the year. ENSO is a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that influences weather patterns in the United States and around the world, including temperature, rainfall, storms and wildfire risk. Pastelok says ENSO-neutral or El Nino conditions do not indicate a lower or higher wildfire risk in Southern California compared to the historical average.
There is typically not a strong, predictable signal toward wetter or drier conditions for Southern California when the Pacific is ENSO-neutral, or when there is an El Niño influence during the summer months. Pastelok says other climate signals will have more impact. “The wildfire risk for Southern California this year will be influenced by a combination of long-term weather and climate patterns, any early start or any late summer disruptions to the dry season and any short-term extremes,” Pastelok explained. “There is no longer a wildfire season in California. Fires can ignite and spread at any time of year when weather conditions and vegetation align.”
If El Niño develops late in 2026, its strongest impacts will likely not influence California until late fall or winter. El Niño development could increase the likelihood of wetter winter conditions in California during the 2026-2027 wet season, depending on the strength and where more significant warming of the waters may occur across the equatorial Pacific.”
