could nepal happen here?
Could Nepal happen here? The short answer is absolutely! Where might you ask? On the slopes and the surrounding valleys of Mount Rainier, here in Washington State which is one of the most dangerous volcanos in North America due to its proximity to people and where they live. Did you know there was a glacial outburst on Mt. Rainier on July 3rd of this year? Yes, the threat is real, and we have evidence of the threat and the destruction it can bring.
Many people worry about a volcanic eruption on Mount Rainier. One will certainly happen someday, but no one knows when. Fortunately, small earthquakes typically signal magma moving beneath the mountain. Earthquake sensors can detect that activity and alert volcanologists to rising pressure, allowing them to conduct further studies and work with public safety officials to warn nearby communities about the possibility of an eruption.
A more significant issue is what we saw in Napal which is spontaneous collapse of rock, mixed with water and portions of a glacier all rushing downward fed by gravity and the combination of ice and water. The result is a mudflow called a lahar that looks like flowing concrete. The videos from Napal are emblematic of what will happen. You can also search for lahars flowing down the Toutle River from the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980.
Hot summers produce more water flowing over and under glaciers, weakening them and the rock below them. Globally, we are having one of those summers this year and the predictions are for an even hotter summer in 2027 due to a continuing exceptionally warm El Ninio that may set an all-time record for ocean temperatures.
Fortunately, Pierce County Emergency Management that has Mt. Rainier as part of its jurisdiction has worked with scientists to install a warning system for these types of debris flows on the route that leads to the Orting, Puyallup and Auburn Valley communities—all the way down to Commencement Bay in Tacoma. No warning system is perfect, but this one is meant to first detect the movement of debris flows and then activate warning systems that include a series of sirens and alert and warning notification systems.
If you want more details on the science of glacial outbursts on Mt. Rainier and the preparations that have been made for warning, search for this video that is an excellent summary, “Rainier's Glacier Just BURST Without Warning — And 42 Sirens Are Aimed At It”
Ultimately, the best way to reduce hazards like this—along with flooding and wildfires—is to keep people and property out of harm’s way by avoiding construction and development in areas prone to flooding, fire, or lahars.
Disaster mitigation begins with taking the likelihood of a disaster seriously. Where we live should not just be determined by stainless steel appliances, upgraded countertops and the proximity of schools. You can avoid death and destruction by making the simple choice to avoid high risk locations.
Property insurance companies are considering your “risk taking” into account and are beginning to raise insurance rates appropriately. High risk areas can expect their property insurance premiums to continue to increase and in some cases skyrocket.
In the end, it is a Burger King world, and you have a choice to “Have it your way!”
